S&P 500 rises as investors await possible Iran and U.S. ceasefire

The S&P 500 climbed 0.54% to 6,590.46 Monday as investors weighed reports of Trump administration efforts toward a 45-day Iran ceasefire against presidential warnings of strikes on civilian infrastructure. Dow added 0.66% or 305 points to 46,428.57 while Nasdaq rose 0.77% to 21,929 amid de-risking from oil's intraday reversal above $112 WTI. Bond yields fell as investors reacted negatively to inflation data. In particular, 10-year Treasury yields declined by six basis points to settle at 4.32%.

The Biden Administration has apparently received proposals from intermediaries in the White House regarding a 45-day truce connected to reopening the Strait of Hormuz should hostilities end; however, Iran's state-run media rejected those proposals and instead put forward five (5) separate demands that include reparations and recognition of their sovereignty.

Donald Trump has scheduled a press conference today at 1 PM ET; he deemed Tehran's response to date insufficient but noted that it is a significant step and he will extend previously established deadlines. However, weekend threats were made regarding U.S. military action against power plants and bridges if no agreement is reached by Tuesday.

Oil futures started the week lower due to hopeful negotiations but then moved higher due to doubt about those negotiations essentially reflecting the erosion of the $20/barrel premium for the war. Energy stocks lagged on concerns about the impact of a potential ceasefire on supply disruption, with Brent trying to hold above $107 at intraday lows.

Asia markets mixed: Nikkei up 0.7%, Kospi 1.43% on U.S. jobs strength offsetting escalation risks. European futures gained 1.2% early, mirroring TACO trade patterns from March's false starts.

Prior sessions swung wildly: Wednesday's 0.54-0.77% gains pared after rejection headlines, echoing Monday's "productive conversations" bounce negated by denials. S&P's war pattern shows Thursday wipeouts amid negotiation whiplash.

Trump's Hormuz ultimatum core to 20% global oil flows intersects Fed pause expectations, with stagflation risks anchoring rates above 4.25%. Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical site, killing IRGC commanders, complicating diplomacy.

Volatility persists ahead of payrolls and Trump's remarks, with VIX above 25 signaling braced positioning.